AN ANALYSIS OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION ISSUES: A CASE STUDY OF ISRAEL AND IRAQ

AN ANALYSIS OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION ISSUES:

A CASE STUDY OF ISRAEL AND IRAQ

INTRODUCTION

Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) have been a headline story to many global media and common agendas in various forums lately. In the midst of searching for global peace and security, the proliferation and development of such weapons are taking place, in some parts of the world. Issues of WMD seems will remain to be the focus of global nations due to the absence of a comprehension and consensus of global mindset pertaining to the resolution in addressing the problems. Despite the efforts to gradually reduce and control global WMD build-up, nations were stunned with North Korea’s test firing of a long-range ballistic), missile in 1998 and recently, with her claim that they have reactivated their nuclear weapon programs and confessed their ability in nuclear warfare. Besides that, there were India and Pakistan nuclear propaganda and psychological warfare that caused diplomatic conflict between both nations is at a stalemate. The United States and it’s coalitions worked hard to eliminate Iraq's WMD capabilities through the use of force due to Iraq's refusal to comply to UN Resolution 1441, that accused Iraq is threatening Middle East peace and security while on the other hand Israel was left unquestioned on it’s WMD build-up. This paper is intended to disclose some related issues, such as the reasons why Iraq has been the focus of interest, whereby in the Middle East itself there’ are states that possess such weapons as well.

AIM

This essay is aimed to highlight some answers towards the uncertainties of the issues of WMD such as ‘Why’, ‘What are the main problems’, ‘What will happen in the future‘, ‘Whose fault actually?’ ‘The implications and effects‘ and ‘Are there any hidden agendas?’ which regard to the issues. At the end of the paper, to suggest some possibilities and recommendations pertaining to the issues as a point to ponder on or perhaps offer some ideas in evaluating the issues.

ANALYSIS

The following analysis was made in March and April 2003 during the preparation of this paper. After seven months, most if not the entire analysis has been confirmed its truth. “ 'Israel WMD Capability. It is clearly reflected and undeniable that after the fall of Iraq, which was once a leading nation among Arab states in term of NBC and WMD, the region is now lead by Israel. The comparison of WMD possession by various the Middle East Arab states as shown in Annex A, theoretically and directly reflecting that Israel is now the only NBC and WMD power nation that exists in the region. They are the one that might ignite NBC or WMD threats in the region and become the cause of unstable atmosphere as far as peace, stability, and security are concerned.

Iraq WMD Capability. Iraq is eventually do not have WMD capabilities at all, be it NBC or WMD capabilities or even Delivery System capabilities during the period of post-Gulf War 1 (1990-1991). The statement made by the UN Weapons Inspection Team leader (UNMOVIC) Hans Blix after the outbreak of Gulf War 2 1 may have its validity whereby up till the day Iraq's last fortress (Tikrit) fell to the US-led coalition, they still failed to discover any NBC or WMD plant or reactor. By not possessing any NBC/WMD capability, consequently, Iraq at present is not a threat in the term of WMD towards any Middle East regions after the end of the 1991 Gulf War. As far as the possibility to be a potential NBC and WMD threat is also illogical, it is only a cheap provocative analysis by the US and its coalition members as well as the currently ineffective and questionable UN council. What Iraq still has after Gulf War 1 was only her expertise and scientist that could be considered hopeless due to the absence and incapability to access any material for NBC and WMD production. The accusation that Iraq might have withdrawn and placed their NBC and WMD weapons elsewhere probably in Syria or other neighboring countries are also pre-conceive prejudice statements towards the Middle East states, in particular, the Islamic nations. The question arises here if so Iraq did possess such weapons and after realizing from the indications that they cannot sustain the US coalition attack, why didn't Saddam use whatever he was believed to possess devastating damage towards them?

Other Arab states capability. The comparative study has been made on other Middle East Arab nations in order to identify their capabilities of NBC weapons and WMD. The outcome of the comparison made is as follows:

Egypt. Has only Chemical Warfare (CW) and ballistic missile capability but neither Nuclear Warfare (NW) nor Biological Warfare (BW). ln addition, Egypt may not develop any NW and BW since she has signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) (1981), CTBT (1986) and BTWC (1972).

Syria. Owned the largest and most advanced CW capability. However, there is no evidence of NW and BW program and production. In term of WMD program and production capability, Syria did have limited long-range ballistic missiles

Iran. Has limited capability in CW and her Nuclear Reactor is solely for energy power generation but none BW weapon reported. Eventually, recent information gathered based on latest statements made by Russian ofiicial“ Alexander Rumyantsev (Minister of Atomic Energy) in ITAR-TASS official news stated that Iran lately expanding its uranium capability in one of its nuclear reactors. The latest development tickles the concern of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and of that superpower and even Israel.

Potential Middle East WMD power nation. Based on the comparison and present development in Iraq, who was once considered a leading nation in terms of NBC warfare capability as well as possession of the most WMD assets, it seems that at present Israel is at the front. Thus in the Middle East presently, excluding Iran, Israel is the new nuclear power and threat to other Arab nations. Furthermore, Israel is not confined to NPT since their refusal to sign any non- proliferation agreement and is always being protected by the superpower. Second in the line up is probably Syria as lately after the fall of Iraq has been propagated by the US of having and developing NBC and WMD‘. In future due to the latest development that the US is now threatening other Arab nations i.e. Syria, perhaps Iran will be a potential NBC and WMD power nation as a deterrent measures to curb Israel dominance.

Who is Actually NBC and WMD Power State at Present? It is clearly reflected that Israel is the present NBC and WMD power in the region and she is a threat to the Middle East nations. It will create the possibilities of other Middle East nations to develop their NBC and WMD programs. It that is the case, the global concern to curb and eliminate NBC and WMD campaign will not be feasible. In line with the current situation with Israel still possessing such weapon stockpile and capabilities, it’s seemed that the region is facing imbalance in politico-military situations.

Political Interest. The formation and the establishment of Israel state in 1948 is the result of a high-level political decision made by World War 2 main actors such as the United States and Britain in accommodating the inspiration of the most influenced racist in world politics and economics that is the Jewish community. The Jewish community contributed in a large amount of income to national GDP of the U.S. and Britain as well as the economic activity of most European states. Thus even though they do not represent any state, but their power of influence is so great. During the 2nd World War, most of the war expenses were financed by the Jewish who intended to protect their interest by claiming to be the victims of the Nazis regime. Therefore after World War 2, Britain and the US were indebted and obliged towards the Jewish and as a payback, they masterminded the establishment of Israel. The present conflict that is the outbreak of Gulf War 2 was again caused by the political influence by the Jewish in” order to protect their interest and ensuring the security of their existence in the region.

Economic Interest. With regards to economic interest, some reasons are:

To Secure and Control Oil Sources. Iraq has been a concern of interests to the US and British ever since the first Gulf War (1 991 ). The invasion by the US and its coalition (March 2003) was due to the strong insistence of the use of force by both the UK and the US on a simple reason, that is, the importance of oil. This statement was further supported by Prof Noam Chomsky in his article published in the British daily, The Guardian on 10 Jan 1991; UK financial stability would be seriously threatened if the petroleum from Kuwait and the Persian Gulf area were not available to the UK on reasonable terms, if the UK were deprived of the large investments made by that area in the UK, and if sterling were deprived of the support provided by the Persian Gulf oil’. He added ‘These British needs and the fact that an assured source of oil is essential to the continued economic viability of Western Europe provide some reason for the US to support or if necessary assist the British in using force to retain control of Kuwait and the Persian Gulf’. The US and the British have long enjoyed the capital flow from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the other Gulf principalities to their economies, corporations and financial institutions. These are among the reasons why Britain and the US have often not been averse to increases in oil price 6.

To Stabilise world Markets Uncertainty. Apart from the importance of Iraq's oil to the West, and the US, there was an argument that was published in the Newsweek, Feb 2003 topic ‘The Waiting Game”. It stated that the US and other world economic power nations or in other words, the World Markets and Business intentionally want War. it also stated that the present world economic situation is facing the cloud of uncertainty, where uncertainty has driven down stocks and put the brakes on the global economy. This economic case for War now assumes that most people are preparing ‘mistakenly’ for a long and ugly conflict which fearing the worst, traders are jacking up the price of oil, consumers are losing confidence, bankers are raising the cost of loans and investors are fleeing risky stock markets for safer havens. A business analyst stated that ‘Markets Hate Uncertainty and with the global economy paralyzed by the fear of the unknown, they argued that war now has more advantages economically rather than peace. This proposition was based on the past experienced during the outbreak of the first Gulf War where a quick allied advance sent global oil price down from $32 to $21 per barrel helping to set the stage for the boom of the 1 1990s. Currently, the oil price is again hovering above $30 and it could happen again if victory comes quickly. London group of corporate managers called the Institute of Directors saying that a short war would push oil prices back to $20 and stock markets up 5 percent this year. To conclude, in economic terms, a short war is better than no war because of the removal of uncertainty.

Other Economic Interest. There is also a considerably important reason that is Iraq’s water resources. After Israel withdrew from Lebanon; their water supply that previously came from Lebanon was terminated. Since then, Israel depended on water supply from other states that are not cost-effective and from re-process seawater or re-treated used water“.

Defense and Security Interest. The defense and security interests here is not actually for the Middle East nations but the main agenda was for lsrae|’s protection from any external threats which the immediate was from the surrounding Arab states in the region. Since Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, she seemed to be a threat or a troublemaker towards others the Middle East states that endangered peace and security in the regions. The superpower or Israel strong allies, worried that at that certain period, Iraq would have the capabilities in terms of armament.

Geo-Strategic and Tactical Important of Iraq. The geographical location of Iraq strategic and tactical value in terms of military operations with regard to its ground that is located at Israel Eastern Front (Refer Middle East map). Strategically, in order to ensure her sun/visibility and security in the future, she has to secure or deny any possible approaches (in military terms meaning offensive route or direction of attack) by its opponents. By possessing control of Iraq, Israel is able to create a ‘buffer zone‘ or ‘safe area‘ at her corridor or outskirts. However if there is no troop invasion war outbreak, the possibility of Iraq launching its NBC and WMD to the heart of Israel is feasible due to her geographical distance. Therefore by eliminating Iraq's NBC and WMD capabilities, Israel will be more secure from any such threats from Iraq. The first Gulf War (1991) had witnessed that Iraq ‘means of what they say’ with the storming of its Scud missiles on Israel's land and fortunately all rounds were conventional warheads and no NBC weapon was reported.

Why Iraq and Not Other Arab states. Besides the reasons that Iraq seemed to be a threat to their (the US, West, and Israel) political, economic, defense and security interest, there are some other reasons that interest the US and its coalition, can be explained as follows:

Settlement of Unfinished Business. Although Iraq was defeated in the first Gulf War, the US Republican Party then led by G.W. Bush senior, was psychologically and morally lost, due to the fact that Saddam Hussein was still in power and Bush senior later lost his presidential sit to Clinton. In other words, the missions of the US and its coalition to eliminate and change Saddam's regime failed. This statement was based on the Asian Wall Street Journal, Aug 1990 spelt out ‘the role of the US-led military forces which were to ultimately overthrow the leadership of Iraq (Saddam) and on top of that to disarm and pacify one of the world‘s most troublesome region, and further establish Israel as the sole regional superpower. Therefore, the Republican victory headed by George W. Bush junior seems to be the right time to settle an unfinished business on behalf of his father‘°. This statement is supported by the article written by Howard Fineman title ‘How Bush Did it’ that was published in Newsweek,“ just after a few days George W. Bush won the 2002 midterm election, where he has made a warning statement toward Iraq to comply to UN Resolution to disarm it’s WMD.

Iraq's Refusal to Support Middle East Peace Process. Iraq was among a few Middle East Arab states that were against any peace process negotiations and refused to abide by any related resolution and will only respond if the peace process includes Palestinian issues as it’s agendas. In this case, Iraq and four other Arabs states were marked and viewed as ‘a major problem‘ as far as the West and the US are concerned. Iraq, Syria, Sudan, Libya, and Iran were accused as non-democracy states, the states that sponsored terrorism and possessed or developed WMD‘? Iraq is always the ‘pain in the ass’ for Uncle Sam and its allies. After numerous military conflicts between Arabs and Israel, Israel strategically gained some advantages when she was able to sign peace treaties with her strategic neighbouring states such as with Egypt (1976) and Jordan (1994) and the others like Turkey, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar have already been under the hand of the US with living only Syria and Lebanon that believed to be their next agenda“.

What Next and the Future. NBC and WMD issues in the Middle East will still be headline issues in the near future as long as a consensus D‘ Solution is in a stalemate. The curiosity and puzzle of the US and her coalition in launching the offensive operation of Iraq with the mission to eliminate its NBC and WMD is still at the deadlock. Alter about 3 weeks (8th Apr 03 to 2nd May 03), US forces in Iraq are still in the dark in discovering Iraq WMD and NBC weapons to justify their intervention. While his troops are busy searching for evidence on Iraq WMD and NBC programs, Bush repeated his questionable allegations that was made earlier on,“ first, Iraq has mobile biological—weapon labs, second, Iraq has not accounted for chemical warheads or materials to produce anthrax and third, Saddam is protecting terrorists. The argument here is, a so-called superpower that has in hand the most sophisticated intelligence instruments and the best intelligence agencies that claimed has the capabilities to monitor and espionage Iraq ‘s activities up to a reliable level, is still unable to discover any WMD. Consequently, it was confirmed that WMD agendas are not the paramount concerned but to overthrow Saddam’s regime may probably be the priority“. Above that, the US ignored and stood up against the suggestion by the EU and others UN assembly members on their proposal to send back UN Weapons Inspection Team (WIT) to continue their work in discovering Iraq’s WMD. What is worrying here is that the US may again manipulate and falsify evidence to cover-up her agendas and to shut up global comments on her actions. This argument is further strengthened with the latest statement made by the US Veteran Intelligence Professional’s (VIP) spokesmen, where they allege President Bush to conduct an investigation on the CIA and other intelligent agencies due to their failure to locate Iraq’s WMD. They categorized the failure as the most disgusting and the worst that ever happened in the US intelligence history. They added Bush refused to allow the UN Weapon Inspection Team to continue their work in Iraq is to plant false evidence in order to prove the US accusations“. Subsequently, they blamed the Bush for being influenced by unreliable intelligence information that painted Saddam is not co-operating with the UNWIT. Again, Bush’s actions are confirmed by the theory introduced by University Malaya lecturer Phillip Davies in his article ‘Perisikan dan Dasar Luar‘ (Intelligence and Foreign Policies) published in PEMIKIR journal edition 2003, as ‘Deaf Captain ”Syndrome' (Syndrome Kapten Pekak).

Who Are The Next Victims?  Despite the issues of the US intervention and the search for Iraq's WMD are still unresolved, the US has already created another tension in the Middle East where they accused Syria of having protected Iraq's 55 high ranking officials after the collapse of Saddam Hussein's regime". On above that, a US official even accused that Syria is currently developing and possessing NBC and WMD, supplied military equipment to Iraq i.e Night Vision Goggles and compromising with Iraq to hide WMD.

Why Syria? There is the geopolitical and geostrategic importance of Syria towards Israel's security. First, on the geo-strategic, Syria is located at Israel's Western Front as well Lebanon on the Southwest approach. With the intention to secure its existence, requires her to create a buffer zone (safe zone) at the vicinity surrounding her, now Syria and Lebanon remain among Arab states that have not signed any form of the peace treaty with Israel. Hence, Syria and Lebanon are Israel's immediate threats“. On the geopolitical dimension, Syria and Iraq have many common similarities. To list out, there are five common ones, first the ideology that is the Baath Party ideology although Damsyik was led by a coalition party, National Progressive Front (NPF). Secondly, Syria and Iraq practice a single party nation that does not allow any opposition party, a system that is similar to the Soviet Union communist party during Joseph Stalin. Thirdly, Syria and Iraq are both strongly anti-Israel. Fourthly, Syria has close ties with Teheran (categorized by the US as part of the axis of evil) and placed her troops in Lebanon as well supported Lebanon militant groups during conflicts with the French, Israel and the US. Lastly, the importance of Syria in terms of its geopolitical and strategic values“. In conclusion, to ensure Israel's security, Syria seems to be more vital than Iraq and needs to be addressed in quick time because of its strategic importance”. Only that Syria is less important in term of economic value compared to Iraq.

RECOMMENDATION

In the midst of searching for a solution in addressing WMD issues in the Middle East, and even to create a balance of power among the states in the region, there appears not to be a workable solution in the long run. Some of the distinct options of recommendation that should be considered are as follows:

Roles of UN Security Council. In ensuring Middle East is free from WMD, UNSC should take all efforts in setting up a comprehensive step to establish a zone free from NBC and WMD. Some confidence-building measures need to be carried out in creating bilateral as well as multilateral cooperations within all Arab states including Israel. The affair and consistent peace process and a win-win situation approach that is of gain to every party need to be formulated and subsequently, there is a need to assign special monitoring teams to ensure its implementation is abided by those parties involved. A suggestion here is employing a team similar to UN Obsen/action Team that should comprise a Weapon Inspection Team (WlT) as well. This step could deter and prevent any further development and curb any new WMD program by those parties involved. Hence it might provide and enhance confidence among the conflicting parties and minimize prejudices and mistrust between them.

Declaring WMD capability. Each country should declare its abilities of WMD capability in terms of development and present possession of such weapons. All of the present capability and their future ‘blueprint’ of their NBC and WMD program should be recorded in IAEA supervision. This step could instill transparency and minimize any worries among the conflicting parties due to their ability to monitor each other’s capability. Mutual cooperation and coordination between the Arab- Muslim states, and exploitation of their economic powers and their inter-socio-political effects shall be the most helping factor.

Strict Enforcement of N.P.T. All the states should join and sign the N.P.T and whatever disarmament program treaties of WMD and they should also accept to put all concerned installations under the international authorities inspection and the IAEA monitoring team. The IAEA Monitoring Team should provide a scheduled program in getting rid of the weapons and its destruction.

The realization of Palestinian Independence Declaration. Palestinian independence has ever been the prime concern of most Arab and Islamic nations globally, therefore to ease the tense situation between the Arabs and Israel, the UN or the influential superpowers should take steps to realize the declaration of Palestinian independence. These steps could bring Arab states to the negotiation table and some positive outcome could possibly be derived from this.

Roles and Involvement of‘The Arab’s Regional Forum. In the case, if Israel continues with her nuclear strategy program and WMD, then the regional Arabs and Muslim countries should respond by suspending the peace process on the socio-economic paths and make Israel realize that, it will be impossible to co-operate with her in these fields. A suggestion that is possibly effective is by using oil as a weapon for negotiation, perhaps oil sanction towards the opposition group by OIC.  A strong Arab State consensus from the Arab League may post considerable effects and invite global attention or international intervention in addressing the issues as well to enhance the implementation of N.P.T program. A comprehensive Arab strategy with the co-operation with another Islamic world probably Pakistan will provide the forum with more effective and balance political and military influence and bargaining power.

CONCLUSION

Based on the issues and discussions in earlier stages of this paper, it seems that the issues of WMD are still and will be a prolonged agenda of interest as far as Middle East states are concerned. As long as the absence of a mutual consensus or understanding and the absence of a comprehensive outline plan with regards to the disarmament of NBC weapons and WMD is concerned, there will be ‘no way out’ on the issues. In concurrence with the statement that the Middle East is the most troublesome region, it is believed that regardless of whatever peace process is taken in the region, the situations will remain status quo. The problems remain unresolved due to too many complicated resolutions, unfaithful plans and objectives, existence of hidden agendas, political and economic interest and intervention by interested bodies. So far, none of the international organization and even the UN council managed to formalize a ‘win-win resolution’ in addressing the problems. The failure is always in its’ implementation because of the exercising of ‘double standard‘ or efforts to oblige one side or the other. 1

The outbreak of Gulf War 2 that recently ended may influence the security scenario in the Middle East region. Although some, if not most of the Arab nations, that probably disagreed with the previous regime, they do not go against Iraq state in principle since they share common religious ties (Islam). The polemic that is haunting the other Arab states is the accusations made by the superpower that some of them are projecting or developing NBC weapons and WMD has caused considerable alarming situation on who will be the next victim state after Iraq. On the other hand, the fall of Iraq has caused a vacuum in terms of the balance of power to deter Israel's NBC and WMD capability. Indirectly, since the other Arab nations nowadays have lost their trust to cling to any major power neither to the UN council in providing an undertaking guaranteed security protection from any unexpected circumstances perhaps threats from Israel. The sentiment of dissatisfaction and sensitiveness is further worsened with Israel constant refusal to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and allow inspection of her nuclear installations program. This enabled her to gain control over the regional states, politically, and militarily with the support of their NBC weapons and WMD capabilities. Because of the uncertain situations, the possibility of other Arab states to proliferate and develop their NBC weapons and WMD is a likely phenomenon, which will then imperils the regional and global peace and security. The armament imbalance among the Arab states and Israel is the core of political as well as strategic issues that will lead to the possibility of armed conflicts and thus it will be a ‘never-ending story’.

Finally, my own views and perceptions toward the problems after studying the issues of WMD of Iraq and Israel, it is believed that it is not so much on the problem of WMD and the issues are not only or actually the prime problems in the Middle East. The paramount problems were actually the problems faced by the Middle East region states that were intentionally created by manipulation from some superpower and those who have their hidden agendas to gain and protect their national interest, which exists, in the region. Among the interests are political interests such as to accommodate Israel's intention to assign control of the region, economic interests such as to control the oil market and to ensure oil sources are secured and a guaranteed prolonged source.

The issues of NBC and WMD of Iraq was only a ‘Black Propaganda’ by a nation power (the US and Britain) in achieving its Foreign Policy objectives or the New World Order (NWO) that is to be a unilateral power and to design the Middle East politically to their advantage“. The incident in Iraq was a classic example of what will happen if there is the absence of ‘balance of power‘ and allowing a nation to be a unilateral power. It is a hope in near or distant future, with the latest issues with regards Syria and US, that there will emerge a turning point, which will bring the unification or perhaps a common standing of Arab nations. We hope that the current global diverse opinions by some major power especially from European continent may able to balance the superpower -biased actions and performed a more aggressive role in addressing any future conflicts.

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